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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd